India cannot move an inch forward in pursuit of its ‘Look East’ policy without resolving the multi-dimensional violent conflict s which exist in the seven sister States in the North-East. Only if Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Arunchachal Pradesh and Tripura are at peace with one another and also within their own existing boundaries will New Delhi’s foreign strategy work.
If the armed Naga insurgents’ 65-year old struggle is not resolved, it can create a lot of difficulties that will stunt the development of India’s relationship with Burma — the first step towards the realisation of the new policy. In this context, the recent Assembly election in Manipur deserves to be closely analysed so as to understand the co-relation between the politics of the ballot and the bullet in the North East.
The electoral battle in Manipur has brought into sharp focus all the features of electoral contests found in every State of India. Indeed, if democratic politics in Manipur is studied superficially and if electoral events are taken at face value, there will not be any visible difference between Manipur and the major States. Like the rest of India, Manipur has a multi-ethnic, multi-cultural population consisting of Meiteis, Muslims, Nagas and Kukis.
Manipur graduated from a Union Territory to a full-fledged State in 1956, and its journey is on the same lines as that of Mizoram, Meghalaya and Nagaland. The Manipur State Assembly has a strength of 60 members and 279 candidates are fighting for these seats. If in the 2007 Assembly election, 19 parties and 308 candidates were involved, in 2012, 17 parties and 279 candidates are in contest.
National parties like the Congress, the BJP, the CPI and CPI(M) are in the electoral battle while regional political formations like the Nationalist Congress party, the Trinamool Congress and the Naga People’s Front sponsored by NSCN-IM is also contesting from Naga inhabited areas of Manipur. Manipur like all other States witnessed a multi-party contest and the Election Commission announced that 80 per cent of the voters participated in the elections held on January 28.
It deserves to be stated that Manipur’s voter turnout during the elections has been remarkably extremely high. Even during the 2007 Assembly election the voter turnout was 80 per cent and for the Lok Sabha election of 2009, it was 67 per cent. It can be concluded that democracy has taken deep roots in the soil of Manipur. It can also be surmised, on the basis of a superficial understanding of the above mentioned facts, that Manipur should be a peaceful democratic State where people want to settle their problems on the basis of competitive electoral democratic contests based on the sanctity of the ballot paper.
However, the reality is not so simple and straightforward. Electoral politics in Manipur co-exists with the politics of the bullet. Separatist and other insurgent groups engage in violence. the Army and other paramilitary forces are permanently engaged in anti-insurgency warfare and democratically elected Governments depend on the Armed Forces to maintain law and order in the State.
Manipur is a ‘disturbed’ State and that is the reason that the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act of 1958 is in full operation there. Activist Irom Sharmila has been on a hunger strike for the last 11 years, beginning in November 2000, to demand the scrapping of AFSPA.
The separatist movement in Manipur has been on since 1964, and now a new factor to destabilise the State has emerged. The Nagas have launched a movement for the hill areas of Manipur inhabited by Nagas to be merged with Nagaland. Also, the conflicts between the Kukis and the Meities and between Hill and the Valley remain unresolved, with at least one group having an economic blockade of the main areas of the Valley.
On the one hand, the January election to the Manipur Assembly does not seem to be any different than elections in any other State. But, on the other, a complete absence of normalcy prevails because an estimated 39 insurgent groups operate in this violence ridden and completely ethnically fragmented small State.
The politics of the ballot versus the bullet is the norm in the North-East where the authority of the democratically elected Governments are constantly challenged and threatened by insurgent groups in the region.
If democracy and a multi-party system has come to stay in all the seven States of the North-East, the other reality of organised violence has also become a permanent factor.
This is the complex and contradictory reality of the North-East.